Bagaimana melihat return harga saham yang wajar

Ketika kita berbicara dalam konteks reksadana, maka ekspektasi keuntungan 14-15% setahun sudah merupakan angka yang bagus. Sementara ketika berbicara beli saham langsung. Kalau kenaikannya hanya 10% dalam 6 bulan, maka dibilangnya lambat, padahal itu sama saja 20% loh.. kalau disetahunkan. Jadi berapakah ekspektasi imbal hasil yang wajar dari saham?

Bila kita melihat dari sudut pandang pertumbuhan, kita lihat saja pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia normalnya berapa? Pertumbuhan nominalnya sekitar 8% setahun. Maka ketika kita bicara emiten yang listing di IHSG, berbicara perusahaan yang sudah sangat besar, maka beda pertumbuhannya ga akan terlalu jauh dari itu.

Jadi paling banter ya 2 3x lipatnya laah atau pertumbuhan 16 – 24% setahun. Emiten yang suksesnya.. ekspektasi imbal hasil yang wajar dari saham? Maka kalau kita ingin bertumbuh dengan perusahaan besar-besar di Indonesia melalui pembelian reksadana saham, ekspektasi kisaran pertumbuhan 15% itu angka yang rasional.

Karena investasinya ke sejumlah emiten, tentu ada yang berhasil ada yang tidak. Maka didapat overall yang objektif 15%. Namun selain bicara “Pertumbuhan”, terdapat faktor lain lagi yang menentukan naik turunnya harga suatu saham. Faktor itu adalah Nilai wajar suatu saham. Nilai wajar suatu saham bukanlah ilmu pasti. Nilai wajar suatu saham secara relatif berubah-ubah bergantung pada sentimen pasar.

Misalnya saja ketika berbicara saham teknologi, maka nilai wajarnya di mata investor dipandang setinggi langit. Sementara ketika berbicara saham industri lain misalnya pertambangan. Nilai wajarnya dinilai jauh lebih rendah karena dipandang memiliki masa depan yang kurang baik.

Sentimen pasar ini dapat berubah-ubah bergantung pada situasi ekonomi, tren industri, ataupun outlook ke depan. Misal saja emiten perhotelan di masa pandemi seperti ini dijual diskon 50% dari harga normalnya saja orang mungkin tidak akan tertarik membeli. Bila kita berbicara pertumbuhan yang normal maka 15% itu wajar.

Namun ketika kita berbicara saham yang diskon atau terkoreksi, lalu kemudian naik bisa menjadi 200% karena sentimen positif, itu juga bukan hal yang aneh.

Jadi berapakah return yang wajar?

Sebaiknya kita mulai saja dari asumsi pertumbuhan yang wajar, mencari hidden jewel tidak semudah itu. Para investor Legendaris yang sangat berpengalaman di investasi saja mengatakan sangatlah sulit, apalagi kita?

Salah-salah investasi kita malah bisa amblas karena terlalu banyak berspekulasi..

A Beginner’s Guide to the Game of Poker

Poker players place money bets on various outcomes of a hand. Money bets can be voluntary or forced, but must have a positive expected value. Players place money bets for many strategic reasons. In the long run, the expected outcome of a poker hand is determined by the actions of the players and factors such as probability, psychology, and game theory.

Blind bets

Blind bets in poker refer to small wagers that players must make in order to remain in the game. They are made before the first card is dealt, and they are mandatory for players in certain betting positions. The blind bets can only be won if the player has a better hand than the dealer. Players in a blind position are the last to act in a game pre-flop and post-flop.

Community cards

In the game of poker, the community cards play a key role. They can boost a player’s hand and also give an edge to other players. The community cards are revealed during a round, with betting rounds occurring when the second, third, and fourth cards are revealed. Players have a certain amount of betting money allocated to each round, and this amount is fixed for each round.


Gutshot was a poker club, bar, and internet cafe located on the Clerkenwell Road in London. It opened in March 2004 and closed in 2007. The club was founded by Barry Martin and Derek Kelly.

Four of a kind

When playing poker, having a four-of-a-kind hand is an advantage. This is a hand in which the player has four cards with the same rank. The standard 52-card deck contains thirteen ranks and four suits. A hand with four of a kind or five of a kind has the best chance of winning. A four-of-a-kind hand is almost unbeatable on the river.

Four of a kind is the highest-ranking hand in poker

The four of a kind poker hand is the third-best hand in the game of poker. It ranks behind the straight flush and the royal flush. A winning poker hand must have five cards, four of the same suit. In addition to that, the four of a kind also has a kicker card, the highest card in the hand or board. This high card is what decides whether the hand is a straight or a flush.


Bluffing in poker is a strategy that can be used to win a big pot. Bluffing is the ultimate form of deception, and is the most exciting aspect of the game. Bluffing has been glamorized in the media, televised in the WSOP, and portrayed in movies. There are some rules to remember while bluffing, though.

The Benefits of Playing the Lottery

A lotto ticket is a ticket sold in a lottery. There are several different lottery tickets available. Each one will have a different number that you can play for a prize. There are some governments that forbid lotteries, while others endorse and regulate the practice. There are many benefits to playing the lottery.


The origins of the lottery are not entirely clear, but many believe that it originated in ancient China and India. In the sixteenth century, it was used to raise money for the construction of Jamestown, Virginia, by King James I of England. Later, the lottery helped fund public works projects, wars, and schools. Today, the lottery is a worldwide activity.

The first live draw hongkong games were held in ancient China. They were thought to have been a way for rulers to raise funds for big government projects. The Chinese Book of Songs mentions the game of chance as “drawing wood or lots”.

Origins in Europe

The lottery in Europe dates back to the Renaissance, when people began to gamble on public affairs. It was during this time that Italian cities began holding cash lotteries. Prizes often consisted of carpets, servants, or combinations of items. These prizes were drawn randomly. Many of the prizes used in modern lotteries are derived from old Italian games. Italian lottery games are believed to have originated in Genoa, where people would bet on the outcome of a random drawing.

Several cities in Europe copied the lottery system, including Bruges. In the Low Countries alone, there are 82 lotteries. These games spread to Italy, Germany, and other cities.


State-sponsored lotteries have long been used by governments to fund public services. Many lottery proceeds go to education or other worthy causes. However, some critics question whether lottery funds secure additional services. Some point to the recent history of U.S. lotteries as a reason for their popularity. In addition, there have been several anti-tax movements in recent years, which have forced lawmakers to look for other methods of raising revenue.

In addition to providing a form of entertainment, playing the lottery also gives people jobs. Many lottery sellers have little to no financial resources and rely on ticket sales to make ends meet. However, their efforts can be beneficial for society as a whole. Some sellers are even orphans or disabled and rely on their income from selling lottery tickets.


Lottery scams are advance-fee frauds. They begin with an unexpected notification. A person is then led to believe that he or she has won the lottery. But in reality, the lottery has been rigged to give the person the appearance of winning. It is important to be aware of the warning signs of lottery scams, so that you don’t fall victim to them.

The most common warning sign is a request for money. Scammers often pose as government officials or the Federal Trade Commission. They will ask for money to get the prize, establish a romantic relationship, or help a friend who is in trouble. But this is always a red flag of a scam.